International financial institutions optimistic about Vietnam’s economic growth
Many international financial institutions have expressed their optimism about Vietnam’s GDP growth, and shared the view that it would reach at least 6% this year.
Standard Chartered Bank expected Vietnam to have a robust GDP growth of 6.7% in 2024 (6.2% and 6.9% in the first half and second half of the year, respectively).
“Vietnam continues to offer a promising medium-term outlook. To maintain rapid growth and competitiveness, Vietnam needs to upgrade infrastructure and prepare to lower carbon emissions,” said Tim Leelahaphan, Economist for Thailand and Vietnam, Standard Chartered.
According to the economist, retail sales and industrial production have stayed robust despite the recent moderation. Exports and imports are starting to recover, though electronics-related trade remains tentative. Given re-emerging inflation concerns, inflation is anticipated to pick up to 5.5% in 2024 from 3.3% in 2023.
HSBC also said Vietnam’s GDP is on a firm recovery track and growth can reach 6% this year. The bank expected Vietnam’s inflation to be at 3.4% this year, much lower than the target of 4-4.5%.
Meanwhile, Michael Kokalari, a chartered financial analyst and chief economist at VinaCapital, forecast that the nation's GDP growth will increase to 6-6.5% in 2024 from 5.1% last year.
After a challenging 2023, all indications are that 2024 should be a stronger year for Vietnam’s economy, driven by a rebound in manufacturing and improvement in consumer sentiment, he said.
Besides, the steady fall in interest rates through 2023 should help boost the real estate market after having helped support the stock market last year, he added.
VNA-TB